In March 2010 we broadcasted an update of our predictions, originally published in November 2008 bearing on the duration and depth of the crisis in the Western World.
So, if you go back to our post-Lehman Brothers (November 2008) communique, we evaluated a 20% chance the recession would last past Fall 2011, and 10% chance it would last past 2014, with a staggering 55% likelihood it would lead to critical worsening (including riots, military replacing police forces etc.).
In addition, in the Black Swan series of three posts beginning with this one we demonstrated how we, Humans, have a very short and biased memory and tend to believe that the last event in a series is “incredible, unheard of, one in a life time, etc.”
So, really Riots in the UK , Riots in Greece, Indignados in Spain , Indignados in Ireland , Protests in Italy , Biggest wave of protests in decades in Israel , just to quote the major ones…were not unforeseeable, on the contrary, they were predictable, and we predicted them.
Sounds familiar now?
These evaluations were performed with one goal: helping our clients in their strategic planning and decision making.
October 6, 2011 at 8:20 am
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