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    Economic downturn crisis forecast November 2008

    Contact us to know details on economic downturn crisis forecast

    graphic results of economic downturn crisis forecast November 2008

    Economic Downturn Magnitude and Duration Quantitative Study by Riskope (http://www.riskope.com), November 2008

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The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol and Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

One of the challenges of Risk Assessments lies in defining proper metrics for the consequences of hazards hits. When the Risk Assessment bears on a well-defined facility, the task is easier than if the study bears on large and multifaceted systems exposed to risks, like, for example, copper theft or information warfare at national scale, or, similarly, if we are dealing with
rational funds allotment and justification for critical infrastructure.

The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol

Metrics in that case have to cover numerous aspects of the cost of consequences, including wide social-economical repercussions of the hazards.

While working on the definition of the metrics for country-wide rational funds allotment and cyber warfare risk management, a literature search led us to review documents such as “ The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol”. This document explains how “Projects would be ranked on a scale of one to five according to their likely effects on biodiversity, ecology, hydrology and erosion as well as on broader issues regarding regional planning, cultural heritage and effect on local inhabitants.”

Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

Operation Risk Awareness and Preparedness Rating (ORAPR)

The similarity with the requirements for a complex consequence metric seem striking. A presentation of the methodology (PDF), at page 13 shows a graphic representation very familiar to us, and probably to you, readers of this blog (See ORAPR)! In fact the methodology of the “ The Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol” is so close to what we developed a while ago for Mine Operational Risk Awareness that we decided to compare the benefits they bring and share our experience with the application of ORAPR.

The “Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol” states among the benefits of its use that it :

  • Creates awareness of all the aspects of Sustainability,
  • Strengthens the capabilities of developers,
  • Provides a neutral platform for dialogue between proponents and affected parties,
  • Provides a global benchmark for regulators, banks and policy makers,
  • Provides a strong signal to any potential partners in a project.

Our experience with ORAPR certainly confirms the approach helps to raise awareness. In fact, we even named it ORAPR where the A stands exactly for Awarness.

As you see the benefits of using such a tool for mining operation is tremendous, as is it with hydro-power.

ORAPR has the advantage of allowing to compare the same operation at various stages, using preparation, awareness and other controls as key parameters. At the end users have a graphic explicit output, as well as a rating in their hands, to help communicating further needs for awareness and preparation developments.

ORAPR is fast and inexpensive and will allow you to “know where you stand” in terms of risk awareness and preparation.

Riots in Europe do not Come as a Surprise to our Clients

In March 2010 we broadcasted an update of our predictions, originally published in November 2008 bearing on the duration and depth of the crisis in the Western World.

So, if you go back to our post-Lehman Brothers (November 2008) communique, we evaluated a 20% chance the recession would last past Fall 2011, and 10% chance it would last past 2014, with a staggering 55% likelihood it would lead to critical worsening (including riots, military replacing police forces etc.).

In addition, in the Black Swan series of three posts beginning with this one we demonstrated how we, Humans, have a very short and biased memory and tend to believe that the last event in a series is “incredible, unheard of, one in a life time, etc.”

So, really Riots in the UK ,  Riots in Greece, Indignados in Spain , Indignados in Ireland ,  Protests in Italy , Biggest wave of protests in decades in Israel , just to quote the major ones…were not unforeseeable, on the contrary, they were predictable, and we predicted them.

Sounds familiar now?

These evaluations were performed with one goal: helping our clients in their strategic planning and decision making.

Results of our Poll on Cyber Warfare and Risk Based Decision Making Procedures.

We promised to publish the results of our poll (http://foboni.wordpress.com/2011/05/18/cyber-war-is-%E2%80%9Congoing%E2%80%9D/ ), so here they are, for your information.

Please note, all percentages are approximate, rounded up to the nearest 5%.

While 60% of the respondents use a well defined risk glossary, only 25% use well-defined risk assessment procedures and 40% expresses probabilities in non numeric ways (qualitative, indexes etc.).

Almost everyone declares to formally evaluate consequences of their decisions, yet 50% do not formally evaluates cascading failures (dominoes effects, interdependent failures).

60% of the respondents define risk tolerability criteria to support their decisions, and almost everyone update their assessments by periodic reviews.

50% have a formal definition for Cyber Defence in their organization, and 75% of the respondent are concerned by possible Cyber impacts (attacks, warfare, etc.) to their organization. Accordingly, 75% believe their organization should strengthen their Cyber Defence scheme.

90% believe that information silos in their organization blur their vision, and almost everyone says that Cyber Defence programs should span across all their organization’s activities.

Now that you see the results spelled out in plain text, what are your reactions?

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