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    Economic downturn crisis forecast November 2008

    Contact us to know details on economic downturn crisis forecast

    graphic results of economic downturn crisis forecast November 2008

    Economic Downturn Magnitude and Duration Quantitative Study by Riskope (http://www.riskope.com), November 2008

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Risk Based Decision Making in Mining Webcast

This course in webcast format is the perfect alternative for busy professionals! Attend these live sessions from your workstation at home or in the office.
Prior to the course you will have access to online e-learning material which will increase your understanding and appreciation of the webcast.

This course also contributes to your Continuing Professional Development (CPD)!

Summary

This course introduces a unified transparent approach to risk and crisis management and explores the link between the so called financial and non-financial risks.
It covers the evolution of qualitative, quantitative approaches in risk assessment, how to present risks in a clear and transparent way, and how to use your risk management program to get the most value for you and your company.
It also presents crisis management, prediction of the depth and duration of economic turmoil, and how companies should react when faced with a crisis.

Who Should Attend?

This webcast will be of particular interest to mining project managers, planning engineers, regulators, bankers, insurers and other mining specialists. Nn mining experts will find it interesting because it covers general modern risk management areas, generally neglected by professional development courses.

About the Authors

Franco & Cesar Oboni lead of Oboni Associates, of Switzerland and Vancouver. They have conducted a broad range of engineering projects, risk audits and geo-environmental hazard mitigation studies as well as planning and management of a wide variety of multi-disciplinary studies.

Date: 9, 10, 11 February 2010
Details: Edumine

Crisis Forecast, One Year Later

On 14-15 Sept 2008 Lehman Brother went down in flames.

In the aftermath of Lehman Brother crash we published on internet a forecast of the crisis “duration and magnitude”. Interestingly, only a handful of contacts asked us clarifications and to give details on the scale of consequence we had used (is it linked to stock markets? To financial indicators?)…
May be, no one believed that reasonable predictions can be made?

As we were publishing our prediction, we were indeed already seeing in the media statements reporting that “quantitative models were wrong” and other inflammatory statements. As usual, in panic/emergency situations, our society tends to react with little finesse (that’s by the way one reason why Crisis Management Plans are so important to implement BEFORE a crisis).

“Models” as a whole were discredited in the eyes of many readers and “forecasters”, now seen as pariah, became persona non grata.

Apparently no one bothered to say that “some models” are plainly wrong or were very poorly used, but others may work just fine!
No one bothered either to say that may be some ruthless people had used the models in order to get the replies they wanted (we have seen the same happen in fields as different from financial forecasts as humanitarian demining, and we have even published papers on this subject, all along with others).

In the full paper we summarize the prediction as it was made one year ago, and we analyze how it stands in front of one more year of history.

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